Polls magically tighten—toward Trump! Look at these NUMBERS:
November 03, 2020
Polling has to be without error to give Biden a healthy victory. With normal errors, his would-be victory would be modest (or still even fall to Trump). If the polls are incorrect-ish, Trump will be reelected. I believe the polls are more than incorrect-ish.

If people are lying to pollsters... a reckoning is coming and it may have an impact we cannot appreciate tonight.

Ali Alexander Election Report | 11-3-2020


FINAL RCPs in Battleground STATES 

TIER 1
Pennsylvania
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +1.2 (Biden +4.3 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Clinton +1.9
  • 2016 Results: Trump +.7

Minnesota
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +4.3 (unchanged)
  • 2016 RCP avg: *Clinton +10
  • 2016 Results: Clinton +1.5

Wisconsin
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +6.7 (Biden +6.6 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Clinton +6.5
  • 2016 Results: Trump +.7

Michigan
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +4.2 (Biden +5.1 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Clinton +3.4
  • 2016 Results: Trump +.3

Arizona
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +.9 (Biden +1 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +4
  • 2016 Results: Trump +3.5


TIER 2
North Carolina 
  • Final RCP avg: Trump +.2 (Trump +.4 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +1
  • 2016 Results: Trump +3.7

Florida
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +.9 (Biden +1 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +.2
  • 2016 Results: Trump +1.2

TIER 3
Iowa
  • Final RCP avg: Trump +1.4 (Trump +.7 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +3
  • 2016 Results: Trump +9.5

Nevada 
  • Final RCP avg: Biden +2.2 (Biden +3.6 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +.8
  • 2016 Results: Clinton +2.4

Ohio
  • Final RCP avg: Trump +1.4 (Trump +.2 yesterday)
  • 2016 RCP avg: Trump +3.5
  • 2016 Results: Trump +8.1

I'll be uploading my Election Night Worksheet around noon. Come back and check the website (alialexander.org). You'll be able to print this document and track the race without the help of Media manipulators. You'll even be able to call the election before they do! Like we did in 2018 when we called more than 50 races and accurately called Senate GOP expansion and losing the House.

— Ali Alexander (
@ali)
1 comment
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Michael Osuna

Great report

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